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Budget & Economic Forecast

Twice each year we prepare the Budget and Economic Forecast as required by Minnesota law. The November forecast is used to set the starting point for the budget, and is the basis for the Governor's recommendations. The February forecast incorporates additional data and is used by the Legislature and the Governor to set the enacted budget or to ensure that enacted budgets remain on track and in balance. Forecast information is also used by bond rating agencies and other financial analysts to review the state's financial health, and by the media who present information on the state's financial condition to the public.

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Latest: February 2017 Budget & Economic Forecast

February 28, 2017

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QUICK SUMMARY

Minnesota’s budget and economic outlook is improved but has significant risk. Slight improvement in revenue projections for the remainder of the current biennium along with a minor reduction in spending estimates results in a projected ending balance in FY 2016-17 of $743 million, $87 million higher than prior estimates. Positive economic performance since the November forecast and expected U.S. fiscal policy changes raise the revenue forecast in the next biennium $321 million above the November estimates adjusted for recent law changes. Increased forecast spending of $156 million and a small increase in the stadium reserve account partially offset the revenue gain leaving a projected balance available for the upcoming biennium of $1.650 billion, $250 million higher than prior estimates. The positive budget outlook continues into the planning estimates for the 2020-21 biennium, however federal policy unknowns create significant risk for this forecast.

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